The stronger the trace strength of the solution relative to that of the original estimate, the larger hindsight bias should be. (3) Hell (1988) argued that the relative trace strengths of the regional estimate and of the solution might predict the amount of hindsight bias. However, this adjustment process may stop too early, for example at the point where the first plausible value is reached, thus ending to a biased reconstruction. The reconstruction starts from this anchor and is then adjusted in the direction of one’s knowledge base. The same mechanism may apply here, if the solution is assumed to serve as an “anchor” in the reconstruction process. (2) Tversky and Kahneman (1974) proposed a cognitive heuristic for the anchoring effected, named anchoring and insufficient adjustment. As a consequence, the reconstructed estimate will be biased towards the solution. Among the early approaches are the following three: (1) Fischhoff (1975) assumed an immediate and irreversible assimilation of the solution into one’s knowledge base. Most prominent among the proposes explanations are cognitive accounts which assume that hindsight bias results from an inability to ignore the solution. In Cognitive Illusions, Rudiger Pohl offered the following explanations of hindsight bias: This tendency will lead an individual to justify a claimed foresight in view of “the facts provided.” Finally, the relevance of a particular piece of that may later be judged important to the extent to which it is representative of the final observed outcome. Furthermore, to the extent that various pieces of data about the event vary in support of actual outcome, evidence that is consistent with the known outcome may become cognitively more salient and thus more available in memory. Consequently, hindsight knowledge biases our perceptions of what we remember knowing in foresight. Due to the selective accessibility of the confirmatory information during information retrieval, adjustments to anchors are inadequate. According to this explanation, knowledge of an event’s outcome works as an anchor by which individuals interpret their prior judgments of the event’s likelihood. The processes that give rise to anchoring and overconfidence are also at play with the hindsight bias. One of the most interesting things I discovered when researching hindsight bias was the impact on our legal system and the perceptions of jurors. Hindsight bias helps us become less accountable for our decisions, less critical of ourselves, and over-confident in our ability to make decisions. Once we know an outcome it becomes easy to find some plausible explanation. The results of these actions will likely be biased by some degree. For example, consider someone asked to review a paper but knows the results of the previous review from someone else? Or a physician asked for a second opinion after knowing the results of the first. They can safely be made only by posterity.” - TulvingsĪside from helping aid in a more objective reflection of decisions, hindsight bias also has several practical implications. “Judgments about what is good and what is bad, what is worthwhile and what is a waste of talent, what is useful and what is less so, are judgments that seldom can be made in the present. And, of course, hindsight bias allows us to participate in one of our favorite pastimes - criticizing the decisions of others for their lack of foresight. For instance, it can be flattering to believe that our judgment is better than it actually is. Hindsight bias can offer a number of benefits in the short run. Your partner decides to turn right and 4 miles down the road when you realize you are lost you think “I knew we should have taken that left.” This bias, also known as the “knew-it-all-along effect,” typically involves those annoying “ I told you so” people who never really told you anything.įor instance, consider driving in the car with your partner and coming to a T in the road. Hindsight bias occurs when we look backward in time and see events are more predictable than they were at the time a decision was made.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |